The OFFICIAL Unofficial Achewood Message Board
Trivial Pursuits => History => Topic started by: Bobby Isosceles on June 14, 2009, 05:02:00 am
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Total media blackout. Some media coverage done on the sly: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcHT8-ps64w
Twitter is a very good source (I cannot fuck*ng believe I am saying this) for information since there is cellphone and SMS filtration: http://twitter.com/#search?q=%23Iranelection
Summary:
- Opposition Candidates under house arrest
- so is Khatami's family
- Tear gassing of universities (it's like these people forgot how THEY got in power in the first place)
- The ethnic Azeri, Moussavi, wins preposterously low vote in Azeri areas; the ethnic Lur wins preposterously low vote in Lur areas; election giraffey
- Rafsanjani resigns from BOTH of his posts
some background at http://www.juancole.com/
some pictures in slideshow format: http://www.flickr.com/photos/mousavi1388/sets/72157619592664479/show/with/3621715877/
Entirely possible we can see a second Iranian revolution
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No offense meant, I appreciate your interest in foreign affairs, but this kind of news and response demonstrates a reasonable misunderstanding of Iran government structure. It is complicated compared to the simple US three branch deal, is an intricate theocracy lead by the Supreme Leader of Iran, the "president" is not The President as we understand it. The president of Iran does not have much power, he does not even control the armed forces. It bothers me that the media is also misinformed in this understanding, and I pray that our foreign services understand this government even better than I do, even if they issue public statements about foreign policy about the Iranian president.
I can also appreciate the effort you put into reading from multiple journalistic sources. I studied middle east history and politics under the dude who founded the DIA and CIA, and my understanding comes from him. This "noise" we are attacked with comes from well intentioned individuals who either have selected ignorance or selected agendas.
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No offense meant, I appreciate your interest in foreign affairs, but this kind of news and response demonstrates a reasonable misunderstanding of Iran government structure. It is complicated compared to the simple US three branch deal, is an intricate theocracy lead by the Supreme Leader of Iran, the "president" is not The President as we understand it. The president of Iran does not have much power, he does not even control the armed forces. It bothers me that the media is also misinformed in this understanding, and I pray that our foreign services understand this government even better than I do, even if they issue public statements about foreign policy about the Iranian president.
Believe me, I am well aware that Khamanehi is the Commander in Chief and head of state. (Contact me outside of the forum so I can explain a little more.) That said:
- student riots and related crackdowns are a near-ditto replay of the 1978-79 riots that lead to the enqelab
- the house arrest of opposition leaders is of note, but the arrest of Mohammed Reza Khatami is key, because he is a key player in the majlis (parliament) and brother to former president Khatami
- Rafsanjani's resignation is a VERY KEY POINT. As Chairman of the Expediency Discernment council, it was his job to oversee any conflicts between the majlis and the Supreme Council of Guardians. As Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, his job was to lead the election of the next Supreme Leader (after the death or abdication of Khamanehi). The fact that he is dropping out is indicative of a major power shift in the unelected part.
- The Farsi-language press, such as it was before the media shutdown, showed the real fear of the existing regime: that this would be another Velvet revolution. The senior political officer of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard said: "har harekat be enghelab-e-makhmali dar iran dar notfe khafe khahad shod" which literally translates to "any movement toward a Velvet Revolution in Iran will be choked as a fetus" but means that any movement similar to a Velvet Revolution will be quashed in its infancy. This is the main fear and it is backed up by:
- after 48-odd hours of incognito, word has emerged that Moussavi has returned and is leading an ENORMOUS march* into central districts of Tehran. (Word is sketchy on this.) In which case, Ahmadenejad is not the main target: it will be the Supreme Council.
* this may very well be a trap
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cool. Yeah, I have an understanding of the structure and workings of the government, but I have not been able to follow current events there since the evolution of my 90+ hour work week. It would appear from the current situation that is akin to the Pakistan/Taliban situation which is even less reported. This is a thing because Pakistan has a confirmed nuclear weapon arsenal, and well, we fought a war against the Taliban. An Iranian revolution would be interesting to watch, and the people there know Americans are not America, so the current momentum appears to be in the positive direction, but you appear to be more in connect with the current goings on than I am.
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Usually, I have an opinion about everything but... yeah. I'm a little in over my skis on this one.
Is this one of those deals where the fall of the one monolithic bad guy who keeps himself relatively in check because he has so much to lose leads to... ten or fifteen tiny nutbars warring over their particular slices of some new mint-fresh hell and basically everything within a medium-range missle's arc is basically destablized to all hell?
Because those situations tend to not only suck but suck in difficult to predict manners.
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I really want to understand what is going on here, but I am very aware that my understanding of Iran is almost nonexistent. I walked by their Embassy the other day. Also I have friends whose parents came to the US after the last revolution. Also my current professor worked in the Peace Corps there in the 60s. Yesterday he recited poetry to us in Farsi about how it is necessary for one member of a party to remain sober in order to make sure everyone gets home.
If anyone has a particular book or two to suggest about Iran I would be interested. In 2 weeks I will be out in Berkeley and ready for some hardcore self-improving reading.
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I really want to understand what is going on here, but I am very aware that my understanding of Iran is almost nonexistent. I walked by their Embassy the other day. Also I have friends whose parents came to the US after the last revolution. Also my current professor worked in the Peace Corps there in the 60s. Yesterday he recited poetry to us in Farsi about how it is necessary for one member of a party to remain sober in order to make sure everyone gets home.
If anyone has a particular book or two to suggest about Iran I would be interested. In 2 weeks I will be out in Berkeley and ready for some hardcore self-improving reading.
Are you in the DC area at present? There's a protest in front of the consulate this morning.
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I think I just heard them say on NPR that the Iranian government basically forgot that there was such a thing as Twitter, so didn't block it? I find this very satisfying.
(BTW: A-Cap, Bobby is highly likely to be well informed about Iran, and Bobby, inev is in France at the moment. Jeez, is no one else around here keeping track of the characters?)
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Are you in the DC area at present? There's a protest in front of the consulate this morning.
I am in Paris, it was the embassy in Paris right by the Eiffel Tower.
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I am in Paris, it was the embassy in Paris right by the Eiffel Tower.
There's a really nice Iranian kabob place on the Champs-Elysees right by the Mercedes dealership. At least there was in 1995.
More info:
http://tehranbureau.com/ specifically http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/14/sunday-iran-alerts/
I'd hold judgement until this comes out in some sort of evidential form, but if there are protests across 20 cities and coupled with strikes then it's beginning to look a lot like fall of 1978 all over again.
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(BTW: A-Cap, Bobby is highly likely to be well informed about Iran, and Bobby, inev is in France at the moment. Jeez, is no one else around here keeping track of the characters?)
Such a fangirl. All updating your database showing most recent appearances and what they were sitting on at the time.
I'd appreciate it if you keep commenting on this as it unfolds Bobby, I like the insight.
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Such a fangirl. All updating your database showing most recent appearances and what they were sitting on at the time.
Sheet cakes, presumably.
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Such a fangirl. All updating your database showing most recent appearances and what they were sitting on at the time.
I'd appreciate it if you keep commenting on this as it unfolds Bobby, I like the insight.
http://twitpic.com/7h3r5/full
Note that I'm not a Moussavi supporter.
From Wikipedia:
Mousavi's socialist ideology became very apparent during the 1980s when he initiated Islamic Socialist policies such as subsidized food coupons, oil coupons and converting private enterprises into government controlled entities. Mr. Mousavi ordered the mass-executions of 1980-81, as well as the summer 1988 executions of over 30,000 political prisoners, who were then buried in mass graves.
The best solution at this point is another popular uprising that takes out the Mullahs. I think that's why Rafsanjani resigned. He is the only person right now with power to elect a new Supreme Leader. The fact that he's resigning (or "resigning") indicates something extraordinarily giraffey.
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yeah, Bobby, that freaks me out a whole bunch.
There's "lesser of two evils," and then there's
Mr. Mousavi ordered the mass-executions of 1980-81, as well as the summer 1988 executions of over 30,000 political prisoners, who were then buried in mass graves.
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yeah, Bobby, that freaks me out a whole bunch.
There's "lesser of two evils," and then there's
Yeah, and Ahmadenijad was probably* the guy who shot Amir Abbas Hoveyda in the back on his way to his sentencing, and was probably* involved as a higher-up in a lot of the kangaroo courts that killed hundreds if not thousands of people after the first revolution.
These are not good people.
More pictures: http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_disputed_election.html
* as in, he hasnt admitted it, but it's an open secret
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Actual quote from protest:
Reporter: Why are you here?
Woman: We are here for the revolution.
Also, during a revolution, do you just have to call in for sick days or personal leave or what? Or all these people just angry and unemployed. Personally, I think I'd revolt during my lunch break.
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that's revolting, a-cap
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Actual quote from protest:
Reporter: Why are you here?
Woman: We are here for the revolution.
Also, during a revolution, do you just have to call in for sick days or personal leave or what? Or all these people just angry and unemployed. Personally, I think I'd revolt during my lunch break.
yes, now is definitely the time to make jokes (http://inapcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/iranelect_06_15/i41_19382207.jpg) (that link is not for the weak stomached)
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(http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00573/Cartoon_573455a.jpg)
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http://25khordad.wordpress.com/
good photoblog. Most of the doors being kicked in and ransacking are being done by the paramilitary basijis. think brownshirts but plainclothes
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Bobby, among the city-dwellers and middle classes, the young and the students, the liberals, etc...Is there any desire to not only see a change in terms of who is President, is there also a desire to do away with supreme leaders and Guardian councils? Are they secularists? Is there any chance of the Islamic republic concept biting the dust altogether?
Is the sensitivity about foreign meddling so high across all the population that the best thing for Western leaders to do is just shut up and not give any opinion on this? What do these young people think about Obama and Sarkozy, for example?
Sorry for all the questions....I just can't sleep knowing something like this might be happening. I'm a 'revolution' geek, I think maybe.
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Bobby, among the city-dwellers and middle classes, the young and the students, the liberals, etc...Is there any desire to not only see a change in terms of who is President, is there also a desire to do away with supreme leaders and Guardian councils? Are they secularists? Is there any chance of the Islamic republic concept biting the dust altogether?
Is the sensitivity about foreign meddling so high across all the population that the best thing for Western leaders to do is just shut up and not give any opinion on this? What do these young people think about Obama and Sarkozy, for example?
Sorry for all the questions....I just can't sleep knowing something like this might be happening. I'm a 'revolution' geek, I think maybe.
It's difficult to tell. Obviously there is a major bias against the Islamic Republic among the diaspora; but those people don't really count. From my vantage point, this is what I (biasedly) see:
- 70+% of the population is under 30.
- They want to drink, smoke, and fuck.
- They are not allowed to do this in public, but for the past decade or two have gotten away with it behind closed doors. (The opening scene of Syriana is disturbingly accurate.)
So in this situation, a theocratic regime is tolerated, because in the end, the drinkin', smokin' and fuckin' is done behind closed doors.
What has changed fairly recently:
- Unemployment is incredibly high, so no one can afford to get their own place and it's hard to drink, smoke and fuck when you're living with Mom and Dad.
- Inflation is off the scale.
- Utilities are not up to snuff. Most of the oil is being sold, so there are petrol lines and such internal to the country. This, by the way, is what I posit is the real reason behind nuclear ambitions; not a weapon (after all, one bomb in the Iranians' hands will do nothing against the hundred-odd that Israel has), but because of basic Scarface rules: don't get high on your own supply.
- I can't stress how bad the unemployment situation is. It is roughly around 30% and a lot of people are being forced into prostitution, including a disproportionate amount of tween/young teen boys. Which, in a machismo culture, is a sign of the incredible desperation. Drug addiction is up.
What has changed very recently:
- During the election, Ahmadinejad has tried to say unemployment was down by reclassifying "employment" to mean something like "if you work at least one hour a week, you're employed" or something equally preposterous. All governments do tricks like that, but when people are really having trouble making ends meet to the point that they're prostituting their anal virginity, that kind of statement is insult to injury.
- To supplement the economic troubles, Ahmadinejad's administration has been bringing in potatoes as a sort of welfare/ration. Most of these potatoes are grown in Africa, in places like Tanzania. Iranians are proud of their culture, their 3000-ish year history, their self-sufficiency and their ability to assimilate invaders to their way of life. To be seen as dependent, especially to a continent that has a track record of catastrophic failures to get their shit together, is a slap in the face. "Death to Potatoes" was one of the campaign slogans of the Moussavi campaign.*
- the paramilitary guys have been breaking into people's houses and seizing upon any "moral violation" as an excuse to trash the place. Since all the human behavior is done behind closed doors, this is a flagrant violation of the "what happens in Vegas^H^H^H^H^your house, stays in your house" rules. If anything, this is going to be the tipping point behind moving from simply backing Mousavi to overthrowing the theocracy.
* an aside on the "death to..." in Farsi, "death to X" is equivalent to English "damn X" or "fuck X". Just like when a driver cuts you off in traffic and you say "Fuck you!" or "Damn you!", this does not mean that you want coital relations or for them to burn in the lake of everlasting flame under the doleful eye of a vengeful God. Likewise, when people say "Death to potatoes," they are not actually wishing for hordes of weevils.
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Is the sensitivity about foreign meddling so high across all the population that the best thing for Western leaders to do is just shut up and not give any opinion on this? What do these young people think about Obama and Sarkozy, for example?
As for sensitivity toward Western leaders: one of the major fears of the Iranian zeitgeist is foreign meddling. The Iranians were pawns of the Great Game, to the point that the Russians assimilated the northern province of Gilan as the Soviet Socialist Republic of Iran between the years of 1920 and 1921; and the British essentially seized the Abadan oil fields and formed the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, later BP, later BP Amoco. When PM Mossadeq decided to nationalize those selfsame oil fields, the British complained to Truman, and Truman told the British to go fuck themselves. So the British waited until Eisenhower, made the same pitch, and that's how Operation Ajax (the CIA-backed overthrow of Mossadeq) took place. Ajax went so well it was the blueprint for the 1954 overthrow of the Guatamalan regime at the behest of United Fruit.
Likewise, it was a sign of Iranian weakness one of the conferences between Stalin, FDR and Churchill was in Tehran, with no Iranian permission for it. The Russians and British had so efficiently partitioned the country between themselves that they decided to just go for the gusto and do it. Go fgure.
So, the Iranians are very sensitive to foreign meddling. This is in fact the argument that Ahmadenijad gave to scare people away from voting for Moussavi. But the young are very open to foreign negotiation. Iran has a major inferiority complex because of its history;* most Iranians want to be treated as equals.
* extreme readers digest version: Iran was never a culturally homogenous place, incorporating at its peak under the Achaemenids various semitic, elamite, indo-european peoples, and a slew of languages and religions. Thus the style of government was always something akin to federalism; let locals practice their own quirky ways, as long as they pay taxes. Hence the Cyrus cylinder being at the UN. However, Iran has had a bad history of being invaded by people who insist on cultural homogeneity; Turks, Arabs, etc. Imposed homogeneity was a new and alien concept that the region never quite recovered from. Closest analogy is the Norman invasion of England.
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Thanks so much for the information.
These basiji (sp?) - they're plainclothes, but people definitely know who they are, right? So they must be crapping themselves too and getting even more ready to go apeshit whac-a-mole than ever. I'm guessing if you can get them to understand that they're over, then there is really nothing to fear...the official police usually fold if a real revolution is gonna happen.
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Thanks so much for the information.
These basiji (sp?) - they're plainclothes, but people definitely know who they are, right? So they must be crapping themselves too and getting even more ready to go apeshit whac-a-mole than ever. I'm guessing if you can get them to understand that they're over, then there is really nothing to fear...the official police usually fold if a real revolution is gonna happen.
that's what happened the last time!
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But what coverage I've seen is 'here is the mob of protestors on Mousavi's side, now here's the mob of protestors on Ahmadinejad's side'. Is there reason to believe that the former mob is bigger than the latter mob?
If there is a revolution and Mousavi ends up being one of the key people then what kind of state are we looking at? Your previous quote made reference to his old socialist policies but wiki suggests most of current platforms were about relaxing government control and getting rid of the moral police.
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This (http://gawker.com/5290819/the-revolution-in-iran-a-recap?skyline=true&s=i) was useful to me.
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because in the end, the drinkin', smokin' and fuckin' is done behind closed doors.
I suppose this is true in just about most places I've spent time in.
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In Oregon, smoking is now done right on the curb.
You try to smoke behind closed doors, and they're going to take your birthday away.
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In Oregon, smoking is now done right on the curb.
You try to smoke behind closed doors, and they're going to take your birthday away.
I don't get to eat nachos for every meal this year due to punishment.
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ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh shiiiiiiiiiiiiiit
from http://twitter.com/tehranbureau and http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/
to sum up: water cannons (may not be water, may not be tepid water)
reports of explosion at khomeini's tomb (if so, likely a reichstag-fire type thing or a mujahedin-e-khalq, more from juan cole http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/it-begins.html -- only state media is reporting this)
reports of helicopters pouring boiling water on protestors (yarr, ye olde medieval)
videos of day 7 of riots: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cw9sIVeuIIo , http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96FxjkTTeTE , http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kTgSXy4fCk
that last one, they are chanting "death to khamanehi", which is pretty inflammatory, but the guy observes they may be mujahedin
raw bbc news feed of riots and shooting, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjcgYycnlHI
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very graphic: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrdRwOlmIxI and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1aPejT0izs
do not watch if you have a weak stomach, you have been warned
http://elections.7rooz.com/link/845/
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"Yesterday I wrote a note, with the subject line "tomorrow is a great day perhaps tomorrow I'll be killed." I'm here to let you know I'm alive but my sister was killed...
I'm here to tell you my sister died while in her father's hands
I'm here to tell you my sister had big dreams...
I'm here to tell you my sister who died was a decent person... and like me yearned for a day when her hair would be swept by the wind... and like me read "Forough" [Forough Farrokhzad]... and longed to live free and equal... and she longed to hold her head up and announce, "I'm Iranian"... and she longed to one day fall in love to a man with a shaggy hair... and she longed for a daughter to braid her hair and sing lullaby by her crib...
my sister died from not having life... my sister died as injustice has no end... my sister died since she loved life too much... and my sister died since she lovingly cared for people...
my loving sister, I wish you had closed your eyes when your time had come... the very end of your last glance burns my soul....
sister have a short sleep. your last dream be sweet."
Whoa.
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There's a #neda tag on twitter in memory of her now (that was her name)
It is very creepy to actually watch someone die up close, not see someone get shot fall down go boom, but actually watch the life cease when (in this case) the hydrostatic shock just fucks everything up. It is very weird to see... one second alive, one second no longer alive, and I dont know if I can sleep tonight after seeing that.
at least its good to know i am not a serial killer
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BBC footage of a crowd running down some Basij (http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2009/06/090621_ag_street_clashes.shtml)
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I'm seeing here and there that the Council of Experts are at least considering removing Khamenei and Ahmadinnerjacket.
From everything I've read, I may have just typed "The Council of Experts are considering new laws for the universe."
Please advise.
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I'm seeing here and there that the Council of Experts are at least considering removing Khamenei and Ahmadinnerjacket.
From everything I've read, I may have just typed "The Council of Experts are considering new laws for the universe."
Please advise.
Rafsanjani legally has the power, but if he does so he may try to push for himself or for Montazeri to be the new rahbar -- Supreme Leader. Not the best outcome, I think the best outcome would be to trash the system entirely.
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Not the best outcome, I think the best outcome would be to trash the system entirely.
Is there any reasonable idea of how likely that is at this point? I mean people are talking about revolution this and that but for all the protests there doesn't seem to be the kind of armed uprising you'd probably need to actually remove the system of government as opposed to simply changing the government.
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Is there any reasonable idea of how likely that is at this point? I mean people are talking about revolution this and that but for all the protests there doesn't seem to be the kind of armed uprising you'd probably need to actually remove the system of government as opposed to simply changing the government.
I don't know. No one predicted the first revolution, or Gandhi leading India to shake off the Brits, or Oliver Cromwell, or the American or French Revolutions, turning out the way they did.
That said, this is following patterns very similar to 79. In the end it boils down to whether the resolve of the Army is against the uprising or with it.
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That said, this is following patterns very similar to 79. In the end it boils down to whether the resolve of the Army is against the uprising or with it.
I am not a historian, but from what I can remember from high school history classes, revolutions typically get into full swing when the military decides they're with the people rather than with the government. I distinctly remember Mr. Lucas (World History, 11th grade) telling us about the storming of the Bastille, and the key being that the army decided not to shoot up the masses.
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I was at the "Bastille" metro stop today, but did not see the Bastille. Just the Rodin museum. DUMB. Good thing that the world allows you to go to places more than once.
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I'm pretty sure the Bastille no longer exists, but if I recall correctly, someone put colored paving stones down (or painted the streets) to outline where it once stood.
Edit:
Google (http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=48.853026,2.369034&spn=0.002978,0.006870&t=k&hl=en) knows where it is. You'll need to zoom in some to see the markings on the street.
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Remind me how this ended the last time? (http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/28/iran.britain.arrests/index.html?eref=ib_topstories)
Edit: I read in another thread that these are actually Iranians who worked at the consulate not British citizens so it's not as big a deal as I thought, they recalled their ambassador as well though, so something's going on.
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Remind me how this ended the last time? (http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/28/iran.britain.arrests/index.html?eref=ib_topstories)
British special forces DO NOT FUCK AROUND. They won't crash any helicopters in the desert. Just saying.
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It doesn't look like things are all sunshine and lollipops in Honduras right now, either.