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[pmcd9]

Are we all fucked?  I know we have some public health experts here, what's your opinion?

~Paul

[miles]

Are we all fucked?  I know we have some public health experts here, what's your opinion?

A few months ago, when listening to NPR, it certainly sounded like we were fucked.  But other mainstream media didn't pick up on it so much.  Now I'm getting that feeling again.

[jough]

Maybe I'm just sucking at the internet today, but I actually just heard about Bird Flu earlier tonight from Jay Leno's monologue (the source of pretty much all of my news now) and when I Googled it I couldn't find anything listing the symptoms.

I've been feeling kinda crappy lately and my dad has this constant cough that seems to have nothing causing it (x-rays and other scans come out clean) so I'm curious as to what the heck the Bird Flu is and if I should be worried.

[slink]

so I'm curious as to what the heck the Bird Flu is and if I should be worried.

Like what went round killing, what was it, 50 million people in 1918. And was SARS avian or porcine? I don't recall now.
Anyway, it's a flu that mutates in it's travel from birds to humans, and is remarkably deadly by and large, what with us having no anti-bodies for it.

If you're not dead yet, it probably isn't avian flu.

[Bozack]

God, I love how every day now is Armageddon. Did God just start hating us recently, or has the news just not been covering it?

[arkabee]

i'm living in kind of a bottoms right now, so the two radio stations i generally listen too are sometimes very staticy as i leave for work, but i vaguely think i made out the abc news person that one of the radio stations uses say

new jersey is flooding.

this is why i try to live under a rock.

[CortJstr]

The news station here talks about bird flu all the time. They have a whole section on their site devoted to it.

[Carlos del Vaca]

Flu Wiki.

My non-expert understanding:  There are cases of the avian flu being transferred from birds to humans.  Bad enough, but so far, they don't think it's spreading human-to-human.  But given that virii always be mutatin', it's a distinct possibility.  THAT'S when we'll be fucked.

[Bobby Isosceles]

Look, not to be cruel or anything:

The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 killed a hell of a lot of people, but percentage wise, it killed about 5% of the population. And this was before hand sanitizer.

In addition, plagues tend to be most virulent at their beginning, and burn themselves out as they kill their hosts before they can spread. Since the avian flu will start in asia, the most casualties will be in Southeast Asia; by the time it gets here, it will be a mellower version that takes longer to go away and is less likely to kill.

The fact is, if the avian flu hits, a LOT of people are going to die -- but they will probably be the old, young, sickly, poor, and foreign. Most strong, healthy American adults such as on this board will feel like they want to die, but they'll survive..

[pmcd9]

In addition, plagues tend to be most virulent at their beginning, and burn themselves out as they kill their hosts before they can spread. Since the avian flu will start in asia, the most casualties will be in Southeast Asia; by the time it gets here, it will be a mellower version that takes longer to go away and is less likely to kill.

This could be good for the American economy.

~Paul

[jough]

If you're not dead yet, it probably isn't avian flu.

Whew!

[AlohaDawg]

Two books you should read:

1) The Devil's Flu

2) Flu

The deal with the Bird Flu is that influenza doesn't jump from Bird to human without an intermediary host (pigs usually), and until recently I think it never went human-to-human. This makes this flu different, possibly scarily rapid in mutation, possibly more likely to be faster traveling, harder to contain, and since it's mutated in a wholly different way, tougher to treat.

Bobby - the Spanish Flu pandemic was different from any flu before or since because unlike most flu pandemics that kill weaker people, kids the elderly, people with chronic diseases, etc, that flu had the ability to take out, in very rapid fashion, people of working age in good health (like soldiers, for instance - lots of them - WWI was a major spreader of this flu).

There's a reason there are scientists reactivating that flu virus - it was unusual and unusually deadly. I wouldn't count on hand sanitizer saving the day. In fact, outside of the US, Canada, and Western Europe I think you can count on mass casualties if it hits like they fear it will hit. And the economic blow to developing nations could be huge (and, of course, the toll of human death and suffering) if it takes out the workforce the way the 1918 flu did.

[Bobby Isosceles]

Two books you should read:

1) The Devil's Flu

2) Flu

The deal with the Bird Flu is that influenza doesn't jump from Bird to human without an intermediary host (pigs usually), and until recently I think it never went human-to-human. This makes this flu different, possibly scarily rapid in mutation, possibly more likely to be faster traveling, harder to contain, and since it's mutated in a wholly different way, tougher to treat.

Bobby - the Spanish Flu pandemic was different from any flu before or since because unlike most flu pandemics that kill weaker people, kids the elderly, people with chronic diseases, etc, that flu had the ability to take out, in very rapid fashion, people of working age in good health (like soldiers, for instance - lots of them - WWI was a major spreader of this flu).

There's a reason there are scientists reactivating that flu virus - it was unusual and unusually deadly. I wouldn't count on hand sanitizer saving the day. In fact, outside of the US, Canada, and Western Europe I think you can count on mass casualties if it hits like they fear it will hit. And the economic blow to developing nations could be huge (and, of course, the toll of human death and suffering) if it takes out the workforce the way the 1918 flu did.

Nothing you say, I disagree with. Mass casualties in developing countries, economic depression, and all that. Points I want to underscore:

- a 5% worldwide fatality rate is still 95% survivability.
- Young men in WWI were also malnourished, stressed and suffering from various trench diseases and a dearth of hygiene.
- The majority of the deaths will be in developing nations without good medical infrastructures.
- In the end, the flu doesn't kill you, the symptoms do. Either your fever develops too high or your airways flood. Keep the fever down with antipyretics and keep the airways open with steam and vasodilation, and you'll still be sick, but you'll be alive.

This line of thought occurred to me after a friend of mine who is the peak of health, in his early 20's and capable of giving Mike Tyson a run for his money, is freaking about about the avian flu. Repeat: Rich, young, suburban types are not the type that are going to be fucked to death by this flu. Poor, crowded, developing nations are going to be fucked.

Conclusion: this is sad, pitiable, and something that we must work extra hard to get over; that said, if you're rich, white and drive a Hummer, you are probably not going to die.

[AlohaDawg]

The first group of flu casualties in our soldiers died before ever seeing battle or trenches - sure, camp conditions and hospitals aren't optimal, but still, these were otherwise healthy people. And we're talking in relative terms to conditions in 1918 - these were possibly the MOST healthy people.

95% survival sounds nice unless you or your family is in the 5%; also you have to trust worldwide ability to keep count of deaths during a panic in 1918 - and the 'powers that be's desire to keep even close to accurate statistics on deaths among racial or ethnic minorities in developing nations or even the rural US.  Whole communities were virtually wiped out by that flu. Even inuit villages buried scores of people (that's where an actual sample of the bug was finally found - in a grave above the arctic circle, frozen since shortly after the death). Also survival didn't always mean a lifetime of health following -some people were left weakened and suffering some debilitation.  For whatever reason (some suspect coinfection with TB) the 1918 flu was marked by pulmonary hemmorhage. Pretty nasty.

Given the rate and rapidity of travel today and the influx of people from around the world to all corners of the US, I would not consider white suburbia a walled fortress. There's tuberculosis and STDs there too. I've had to go find those people and talk to them.

Interestingly, They're usually bigger assholes about it than the crack dealer in the IC.

[side_show]

 Like what went round killing, what was it, 50 million people in 1918. And was SARS avian or porcine?

The Spanish Flu was the 1918 flu, it was a bird flu.  It is believed that SARS originated in Civet Cats.