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[Mr Trout]

Along that same thread, there is the man who made $3-4 billion for himself in one day by better against the housing market before the sub-prime collapse. http://www.financialnews-us.com/?page=ushome&contentid=2349571152

Now I'm not saying this should be illegal, or regulated more, but something about it just seems wrong to me. On a gut level. On another level I feel like patting the guy on the back.

[Arachno-capitalist]

Good article, Trout.

I disagree with mayor's valuation of CMG. I do not like burritos, but I do like companies that have perpetual growth every quarter and almost zero debt while swimming in cash. When compared side by side to sector competitors, its a very strong company. Plus you'd be shorting shares at over a 100 a pop when some analysts see it going up another 50 in the next couple months. Do you trade in options? That might be a less risky way to test your feeling.

[theinevitable]

OK, I looked up "selling short," and discovered that I was completely misunderstanding what it meant.

[Victoria Waterfield]

OK, I looked up "selling short," and discovered that I was completely misunderstanding what it meant.

Were you confusing it with stopping short? Because that's a pretty good move.

[theinevitable]

YOU THINK YOU CAN STOP SHORT WITH MY WIFE!?

[lprkn]

</ridiculous Italian accent-o>

[Pedro Picasso]

I used to think selling short was pretty easy, so I faked up a scenario where I shorted the ever loving crap out of SCO.  Their stock price went up just a little bit before it went down down down as expected.  That little uptick was enough to wipe out my insurance buffer, so I never would have seen profit on it. 

Lesson: predicting what's going to happen isn't good enough.  You also need to know when, and what will happen between now and then.

[Carlos del Vaca]

See, the housing market is the exact kind of situation I'm talking about.  I've thought for at least a couple years, "Someone's going to take a bath on this shit," and if I'd have applied myself perhaps I'd have shorted Countrywide and their ilk.

Good points, A-CAP, and that's the kind of research I just haven't done yet and would need to do before actually making a commitment.  They just put out a quarterly earnings announcement of only 3 cents/share (vs. 19 cents/share for the same quarter last year), and the stock hasn't taken a severe beating today, which I take to mean it wasn't unexpected.

[jaydub]

See, the housing market is the exact kind of situation I'm talking about.  I've thought for at least a couple years, "Someone's going to take a bath on this shit," and if I'd have applied myself perhaps I'd have shorted Countrywide and their ilk.

I sort of did the next best thing.  A couple years ago, when the housing bubble was accelerating with no end in sight, the wife and I were seriously talking about getting into the market (buying our first).  The thing is - we live in the San Francisco Bay Area, where you need to get a jumbo loan to get a dump, and a line of credit on the side to cover the down payment, etc etc.  So as we studied and talked to people and so forth, it became apparent that due to my wife being a teacher, and neither of us having particularly amazing credit - the answer seemed to be to get into a loan where you just pay the interest on the principal (no money down).  The theory, as explained to us by casually confident mortgage broker types, is that after the market carries the house up for a while you sell and use the proceeds as a down payment on a house with a fixed rate.  Oh yeah - this was one of those shorter term adjustable rate deals.  The brokers would work it out for us on paper and show how it all added up.  We'd be crazy not to do it!  Really!  Its a sure thing!  Everyone's doing it!
The thing is, I have had many talks with my Dad about what life was like in the days of double-digit inflation.  I also was a front seat witness to the tech bubble in 2000/2001 (though thankfully wasn't directly affected by it).  It all sounded way too familiar.  So I rent.  And stick a ridiculous amount of money into IRAs/401Ks.  And pay down my damn consumer debt.  So we don't own a home.  And every day, these days, I thank God for a little foresight and, perhaps, the first glimmerings of wisdom.  Because there are a lot of houses for sale around me at the moment, and a sad story behind each of them.

[Arachno-capitalist]

now, on the other hand, you can buy properties for pennies on the dollar.

[Lister]

Houses that I actually want to buy are staying in that depressing "Just out of reach of the price range that is just out of reach of what I can actually afford" price range.  The people who own those homes need to buy more SUVs, PWCs, ATVs, and go snowboarding.  A lot.

Someday I'll have patience, but it won't be soon enough.

[Carlos del Vaca]

Hey, remember back in March when I said I wanted to short Chipotle, which at the time was like $110 a share?

Today it's below $88.  So if I'd shorted 200 shares then, I'd be looking at a good four grand in free fuckin' money.

Too bad I'm such a wuss.  Also, A-CAP, you suck.

[Arachno-capitalist]

Yea seriously, Chipotle really dropped the ball, good call on your part.

If anyone wants a free stock tip, however, might i suggest the gasoline ETF, Amex symbol UGA. You can also buy oil with USO. Wish I had some more spare cash for these guys.

[wombat]

Hey, A-Cap, want to earn very little money writing for this guy instead of none at all writing here?

http://honolulu.craigslist.org/oah/wrg/687394711.html

Reply to: gigs-687394711@craigslist.org
Date: 2008-05-19, 3:17PM HST

I am launching an online magazine with a working title of Amateur Economists in July 2008. I am looking for writers and bloggers in any of the following areas:

- Business and Finance
- Environment
- Religion and Morality/Ethics
- Education
- U.S. Economy
- World Economy
- Politics
- Science and Technology
- Literature and Art
- Society and Culture
- Any other Economics-related topics you enjoy (which really can encompass a myriad of things)

Article must be 500-750 words; blogs 300-400 words. In addition to a sample of your writing, please also mention what topic(s) you would be interested in writing about for your article. 
 
it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
Compensation: $50 per article; $25 per blog

[littlefallsmets]

There is something very funny about a magazine called Amateur Economics paying people to write articles. So amateur that they don't understand the concept of amateur. That's awesome.