Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Bobby Isosceles]

Total media blackout. Some media coverage done on the sly: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcHT8-ps64w

Twitter is a very good source (I cannot fuck*ng believe I am saying this) for information since there is cellphone and SMS filtration: http://twitter.com/#search?q=%23Iranelection

Summary:
- Opposition Candidates under house arrest
- so is Khatami's family
- Tear gassing of universities (it's like these people forgot how THEY got in power in the first place)
- The ethnic Azeri, Moussavi, wins preposterously low vote in Azeri areas; the ethnic Lur wins preposterously low vote in Lur areas; election giraffey
- Rafsanjani resigns from BOTH of his posts

some background at http://www.juancole.com/
some pictures in slideshow format: http://www.flickr.com/photos/mousavi1388/sets/72157619592664479/show/with/3621715877/


Entirely possible we can see a second Iranian revolution

[Arachno-capitalist]

No offense meant, I appreciate your interest in foreign affairs, but this kind of news and response demonstrates a reasonable misunderstanding of Iran government structure. It is complicated compared to the simple US three branch deal, is an intricate theocracy lead by the Supreme Leader of Iran, the "president" is not The President as we understand it. The president of Iran does not have much power, he does not even control the armed forces. It bothers me that the media is also misinformed in this understanding, and I pray that our foreign services understand this government even better than I do, even if they issue public statements about foreign policy about the Iranian president.
I can also appreciate the effort you put into reading from multiple journalistic sources. I studied middle east history and politics under the dude who founded the DIA and CIA, and my understanding comes from him. This "noise" we are attacked with comes from well intentioned individuals who either have selected ignorance or selected agendas.

[Bobby Isosceles]

No offense meant, I appreciate your interest in foreign affairs, but this kind of news and response demonstrates a reasonable misunderstanding of Iran government structure. It is complicated compared to the simple US three branch deal, is an intricate theocracy lead by the Supreme Leader of Iran, the "president" is not The President as we understand it. The president of Iran does not have much power, he does not even control the armed forces. It bothers me that the media is also misinformed in this understanding, and I pray that our foreign services understand this government even better than I do, even if they issue public statements about foreign policy about the Iranian president.

Believe me, I am well aware that Khamanehi is the Commander in Chief and head of state. (Contact me outside of the forum so I can explain a little more.) That said:

- student riots and related crackdowns are a near-ditto replay of the 1978-79 riots that lead to the enqelab
- the house arrest of opposition leaders is of note, but the arrest of Mohammed Reza Khatami is key, because he is a key player in the majlis (parliament) and brother to former president Khatami
- Rafsanjani's resignation is a VERY KEY POINT. As Chairman of the Expediency Discernment council, it was his job to oversee any conflicts between the majlis and the Supreme Council of Guardians. As Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, his job was to lead the election of the next Supreme Leader (after the death or abdication of Khamanehi). The fact that he is dropping out is indicative of a major power shift in the unelected part.
- The Farsi-language press, such as it was before the media shutdown, showed the real fear of the existing regime: that this would be another Velvet revolution. The senior political officer of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard said: "har harekat be enghelab-e-makhmali dar iran dar notfe khafe khahad shod" which literally translates to "any movement toward a Velvet Revolution in Iran will be choked as a fetus" but means that any movement similar to a Velvet Revolution will be quashed in its infancy. This is the main fear and it is backed up by:
- after 48-odd hours of incognito, word has emerged that Moussavi has returned and is leading an ENORMOUS march* into central districts of Tehran. (Word is sketchy on this.) In which case, Ahmadenejad is not the main target: it will be the Supreme Council.

* this may very well be a trap

[Arachno-capitalist]

cool. Yeah, I have an understanding of the structure and workings of the government, but I have not been able to follow current events there since the evolution of my 90+ hour work week. It would appear from the current situation that is akin to the Pakistan/Taliban situation which is even less reported. This is a thing because Pakistan has a confirmed nuclear weapon arsenal, and well, we fought a war against the Taliban. An Iranian revolution would be interesting to watch, and the people there know Americans are not America, so the current momentum appears to be in the positive direction, but you appear to be more in connect with the current goings on than I am.

[littlefallsmets]

Usually, I have an opinion about everything but... yeah. I'm a little in over my skis on this one.

Is this one of those deals where the fall of the one monolithic bad guy who keeps himself relatively in check because he has so much to lose leads to... ten or fifteen tiny nutbars warring over their particular slices of some new mint-fresh hell and basically everything within a medium-range missle's arc is basically destablized to all hell?

Because those situations tend to not only suck but suck in difficult to predict manners.

[theinevitable]

I really want to understand what is going on here, but I am very aware that my understanding of Iran is almost nonexistent. I walked by their Embassy the other day. Also I have friends whose parents came to the US after the last revolution. Also my current professor worked in the Peace Corps there in the 60s. Yesterday he recited poetry to us in Farsi about how it is necessary for one member of a party to remain sober in order to make sure everyone gets home.

If anyone has a particular book or two to suggest about Iran I would be interested. In 2 weeks I will be out in Berkeley and ready for some hardcore self-improving reading.

[Bobby Isosceles]

I really want to understand what is going on here, but I am very aware that my understanding of Iran is almost nonexistent. I walked by their Embassy the other day. Also I have friends whose parents came to the US after the last revolution. Also my current professor worked in the Peace Corps there in the 60s. Yesterday he recited poetry to us in Farsi about how it is necessary for one member of a party to remain sober in order to make sure everyone gets home.

If anyone has a particular book or two to suggest about Iran I would be interested. In 2 weeks I will be out in Berkeley and ready for some hardcore self-improving reading.

Are you in the DC area at present? There's a protest in front of the consulate this morning.

[wombat]

I think I just heard them say on NPR that the Iranian government basically forgot that there was such a thing as Twitter, so didn't block it? I find this very satisfying.

(BTW: A-Cap, Bobby is highly likely to be well informed about Iran, and Bobby, inev is in France at the moment. Jeez, is no one else around here keeping track of the characters?)

[theinevitable]

Are you in the DC area at present? There's a protest in front of the consulate this morning.

I am in Paris, it was the embassy in Paris right by the Eiffel Tower.

[Bobby Isosceles]

I am in Paris, it was the embassy in Paris right by the Eiffel Tower.

There's a really nice Iranian kabob place on the Champs-Elysees right by the Mercedes dealership. At least there was in 1995.

More info:
http://tehranbureau.com/ specifically http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/14/sunday-iran-alerts/
I'd hold judgement until this comes out in some sort of evidential form, but if there are protests across 20 cities and coupled with strikes then it's beginning to look a lot like fall of 1978 all over again.

[Doc]

(BTW: A-Cap, Bobby is highly likely to be well informed about Iran, and Bobby, inev is in France at the moment. Jeez, is no one else around here keeping track of the characters?)

Such a fangirl. All updating your database showing most recent appearances and what they were sitting on at the time.

I'd appreciate it if you keep commenting on this as it unfolds Bobby, I like the insight.

[jaydub]

Such a fangirl. All updating your database showing most recent appearances and what they were sitting on at the time.

Sheet cakes, presumably.

[Bobby Isosceles]

Such a fangirl. All updating your database showing most recent appearances and what they were sitting on at the time.

I'd appreciate it if you keep commenting on this as it unfolds Bobby, I like the insight.

http://twitpic.com/7h3r5/full

Note that I'm not a Moussavi supporter.

From Wikipedia:

Mousavi's socialist ideology became very apparent during the 1980s when he initiated Islamic Socialist policies such as subsidized food coupons, oil coupons and converting private enterprises into government controlled entities. Mr. Mousavi ordered the mass-executions of 1980-81, as well as the summer 1988 executions of over 30,000 political prisoners, who were then buried in mass graves.

The best solution at this point is another popular uprising that takes out the Mullahs. I think that's why Rafsanjani resigned. He is the only person right now with power to elect a new Supreme Leader. The fact that he's resigning (or "resigning") indicates something extraordinarily giraffey.

[theinevitable]

yeah, Bobby, that freaks me out a whole bunch.
There's "lesser of two evils," and then there's

Mr. Mousavi ordered the mass-executions of 1980-81, as well as the summer 1988 executions of over 30,000 political prisoners, who were then buried in mass graves.

[Bobby Isosceles]

yeah, Bobby, that freaks me out a whole bunch.
There's "lesser of two evils," and then there's

Yeah, and Ahmadenijad was probably* the guy who shot Amir Abbas Hoveyda in the back on his way to his sentencing, and was probably* involved as a higher-up in a lot of the kangaroo courts that killed hundreds if not thousands of people after the first revolution.

These are not good people.

More pictures: http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_disputed_election.html


* as in, he hasnt admitted it, but it's an open secret